By Shaheen Sehbai
ISLAMABAD: Intense search has begun in political and media circles to find out who is the father of the Pakistan Army and ISI-specific conditions in the Kerry-Lugar Bill, which ultimately led to the assertive statement issued by the 122nd corps commanders’ meeting on Wednesday. But the search will not be too difficult.
All fingers point to the Pakistani lobbyists in Washington who were hired by the Pakistan Embassy after thePPP government came into power in 2008. These lobbyists, including Mark A Siegel and Cassidy and Associates, were supposed to work for Pakistan and were paid million of dollars, but they were actually lobbying against Pakistan and were trying to get anti-Pakistan conditions inserted in the Kerry-Lugar Bill.
Experts, who know Washington, say the lobbyists do only what their client tells them. In the case of the Kerry-Lugar Bill, the client has been the Pakistan Embassy, so the buck will have to stop at the Pakistani mission in Washington DC.
But according to one expert, the details of all these Army-specific conditions were spelled out in a well-publicised book published by a Pakistani scholar-cum-journalist-cum-diplomat, way back in January 2006.
The language in which the scholar, Husain Haqqani, now Pakistan’s ambassador in Washington and the main proponent of the Kerry-Lugar Bill, had urged Washington to put these conditions on Pakistan would shock everyone, when read in today’s context.
For instance, the book ëPakistan between Mosque and Militaryí states categorically that “the United States must use its aid as a lever to influence Pakistan’s domestic policies.” The book states: “Washington should no longer condone the Pakistani military’s support of Islamic militants, its use of its intelligence apparatus for controlling domestic politics, and its refusal to cede power to a constitutional democratic government.”
At another place the book says: “Because Washington has attached a few conditions to US aid, the spending patterns of Pakistan’s government have not changed significantly. The country’s military spending continues to increase...”
On pages 327 to 329, Haqqani says: “Unlike governments in other Muslim countries like Egypt and Turkey, Pakistan’s government - particularly its military - has encouraged political and radical Islam, which otherwise has a relatively narrow base of support. Democratic consensus on limiting or reversing Islamisation would gradually roll back the Islamist influence in Pakistani public life. Islamists would maintain their role as a minority pressure group representing a particular point of view, but they would stop wielding their current disproportionate influence over the country’s overall direction.
“The United States can help contain the Islamists’ influence by demanding reform of those aspects of Pakistan’s governance that involve the military and security services. Until now, the United States has harshly berated corrupt or ineffective Pakistani politicians but has only mildly criticised the military’s meddling. Between 1988 and 1999, when civilians ostensibly governed Pakistan, US officials routinely criticised the civilians’ conduct but refrained from commenting on the negative role of the military and the intelligence services despite overwhelming evidence of that role. ISI manipulation of the 1988, 1990, and 1997 elections went unnoticed publicly by the United States while the Pakistan military’s recitation of politicians’ failings was generally accepted without acknowledging the impacts of limits set for the politicians by the military. The United States appears to accept the Pakistani military’s falsified narrative of Pakistan’s recent history, at least in public. It is often assumed that the military’s intervention in politics is motivated by its own concern over national security and the incompetence of politicians. That the military might be a contributor to political incompetence and its desire to control national security policies might be a function of its pursuit of domestic political power are hardly ever taken into account.
“Washington should no longer condone the Pakistani military’s support of Islamic militants, its use of its intelligence apparatus for controlling domestic politics, and its refusal to cede power to a constitutional democratic government. As an aid donor, Washington has become one of Pakistan’s most important benefactors, but a large part of US economic assistance since September 11, 2001 has been used to pay down Pakistan’s foreign debt. Because Washington has attached a few conditions to US aid, the spending patterns of Pakistan’s government have not changed significantly. The country’s military spending continues to increase, and spending for social services is well below the level required to improve living conditions for ordinary Pakistanis. The United States must use its aid as a lever to influence Pakistan’s domestic policies. Even though Musharraf’s selective cooperation in hunting down Al-Qaeda terrorists is a positive development, Washington must not ignore Pakistan’s state sponsorship of Islamist militants, its pursuit of nuclear weapons and missiles at the expense of education and healthcare, and its refusal to democratise; each of these issues is directly linked to the future of Islamic radicalism.
“The United States clearly has a few good short-term policy options in relation to Pakistan. American policymakers should endeavour to recognise the failings of their past policies and avoid repeating their mistakes. The United State has sought short-term gains from its relationship with Pakistan, inadvertently accentuating that country’s problems in the process. Pakistan’s civil and military elite, on the other hand, must understand how their three-part paradigm for state and nation building has led Pakistan from one disaster to the next. Pakistan was created in a hurry and without giving detailed thought to various aspects of national and state building. Perhaps it is time to rectify that mistake by taking a long-term view. Both Pakistan’s elite and their US benefactors would have to participate in transforming Pakistan into a functional, rather than ideological, state.”
Once these considered suggestions and proposals made by the current Pakistan ambassador are analysed in today’s context, there will be few left who would continue to search for the source of the insulting conditions which the Kerry-Lugar Bill has imposed on Pakistan.
All power players focus on constitutional knock-out
Kerry-Lugar law’s Muridke clause alienates Army from; NRO-hit presidency; Zardari falls back on Nawaz; ready to give up 17th Amendment powers
By Shaheen Sehbai
KARACHI: An intense, behind the scenes, strategic and decisive review of the current political situation has begun among major power players, both political and non-political, to quickly decide how to stabilise the situation, seriously threatened by impending questions about the fate of those who benefited from the infamous NRO and are now in top positions of the country.
After detailed background interviews and sessions with most of the stakeholders, it is now becoming clear that unless the present system is cleansed and the major irritants are removed, the desperately needed political stability and the required moral and political support for the on-going civil war-like situation would not be available. This may, and probably already is, seriously hampering the military-cum-security operations against the hit-and-run or hit-and-die terrorists roaming all over the country.
Although the apparent problem is the uncertainty about what would happen to the NRO in parliament and even if passed by a simple majority, what may happen if the Supreme Court strikes down the controversial law ab initio, the issue which is driving everyone crazy is the wide gulf that has emerged between the top civilian and military leadership on how to handle America and the war on terror, denials and clarifications notwithstanding.
A well-informed insider said things had gone so bad that the military leaders had refused to meet President Asif Ali Zardari recently but it was Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani who persuaded the Pindi people to at least convey their views in a face-to-face sitting so a patch up, if possible, may be attempted. That effort too did not work.
Unfortunately, or probably in the interest of the system as the other side may argue, the political wings of our military establishment (read agencies), which had almost become redundant and were dormant for some months, have now come back into action with full force.
According to a recent BBC analysis: “The military launched a massive public relations exercise, briefing sympathetic talk-show hosts and journalists, who were encouraged to whip up public opinion against the (Kerry-Lugar) Bill. General Kayani also secretly met the opposition politician Shahbaz Sharif, the Punjab CM, who the Army had ostracised until now.”
Though such behind-the-scene interference has always been a major factor in political changes in the country, it is never legitimate or desirable. The Army is unhappy and angry because Zardari has given away too many concessions to the Americans and the GHQ realises that if the Kerry-Lugar Bill was to be implemented as desired by Washington, Pakistani cities could soon turn into battlegrounds between the Army and the Lashkar Tayyaba, the Jaish Mohammed and Taliban forces combined.
So far the GHQ has kept the Lashkar Tayyaba quiet by not acceding to the US demands of attacking or even touching Muridke, arguing that once this sleeping elephant wakes up, it could turn around and trample our own forces. After all, the LeT was raised and trained by our military establishment to fight the Indians in Kashmir and they are good at it. Turning their guns inwards, with TTP suicide bombers roaming everywhere, would turn Pakistan into a burning inferno, ready to collapse. Thus the Kerry-Lugar Bill is considered to be a recipe for instant disaster.
These arguments apart, the fact, however, is that the politicians are again failing to handle their own affairs in a deft manner and may again have provided the opportunity or the space for such behind-the-scene military intervention. One such occasion was provided on March 15 when the long march threatened the system.
Leading political parties are weighing their options. Consultations, often late in the night between key leaders, are at a peak to find some formula which may save the political parties from the embarrassment of voting for a black law but at the same time saving the system from failing once again.
The bottom line is how to change the image of the presidency, how to bring back its credibility and how to make it an institution which could be trusted and respected, by the people and its armed forces alike. President Asif Zardari, who had the God-given opportunity to rise to the occasion, has failed miserably by acting in a cavalier manner, by destroying his own credibility and by foisting upon the nation a coterie of cronies who may have been good providers of goods and services to him in jail but are not fit by any standard to run the affairs of the country.
This personalised style of governance has confused all political leaders and parties. They do not know whether to support Zardari on the NRO or to take a principled stand against him. The position of PPP allies is extremely difficult. The ANP and the JUI are inclined to stay neutral at best, although publicly they have opposed the NRO repeatedly. Abstention may also not help Zardari.
The MQM is on a crossroads as the party has recently announced a major makeover of its public face, trying to go into Punjab and other parts of Pakistan and transform into a country-wide party. But it is stuck with the PPP in Sindh and going against the NRO would cause a serious breach in these relations since it would again be seen as an anti-Sindh move, aimed at supporting the Punjabi political and military establishment.
The MQM think tanks do not want to get into a situation in which the apparently stable province could fall back into the dreaded urban-rural conflict once again, with the Taliban waiting on the outskirts of Karachi to strike at the city as soon as they get the chance.
So far, MQM strategists say, the Taliban have refrained from attacking Karachi because firstly the level of public vigilance in the city is far greater and intense because of the omni-present MQM cadres on the streets, and secondly because the Pathans in Karachi seriously believe that their economic and financial interests would be severely hit if Taliban terrorism disrupts the city.
So the Pukhtoons are in no mood to secretly provide sanctuaries to suicide bombers and could openly confront them if need be. On this issue, they and the MQM are on the same page, with strong political support from the ANP and the Jamaat-e-Islami. Several meetings between the MQM and Pathan leadership on this issue have already raised the level of mutual trust and coordination for joint action.
Yet for the MQM to openly support the NRO would be a retrogressive political decision. Conversely, if the MQM came out publicly against the NRO and offered to present all its beneficiaries to take their cases to the courts, the party will gain moral high ground and the party will get a facelift throughout the country, which could otherwise take years to accomplish.
For the PPP itself, the NRO is a major divisive issue. Except for the few top beneficiaries, the general PPP cadres had nothing to do with it and privately are deadly opposed to voting for such a black law. But they have other interests associated with staying in power and they would not like to rock the boat, if the NRO threatens to derail the current PPP stint in power.
The feeling in some PPP circles is that if the NRO strikes at Zardari and his cronies, rural Sindh, where the PPP has grass root support for the Bhuttos, would not react as fiercely as many predict it would. This may be so because Zardari and his Sindhi friends, who were never part of the Benazir circle, have generated enough ill will and animosity in the last 18 months. Some have been forced to recall the funny story of the coffin thief of a village and his son. It is better not to repeat that story.
The prime minister appears to be in two minds and would publicly like to support the president but he had himself refused to take any benefit from the NRO and had his own cases judged by the regular Musharraf courts under old laws. That one correct political decision may help him immensely when the NRO may keep haunting others.
But he is also lobbying secretly for the principled political parties, both allies and opponents, to take a stand against the NRO so that the system could be cleansed and stabilised. How much support he can muster within the PPP is a moot question but if he takes a public position, many would come forward to support him. His government would in no case fall because the PML-N has offered to sustain it.
The intense discussions behind closed doors are focusing on finding some way out before the NRO explodes into the political scene and starts rocking the boat. Political wings of agencies are secretly lobbying members of parliament to vote out the law, which may force the president to think about giving up his powers or to resign.
Various compromise formulas are also doing the rounds, some code named minus-5 and others minus-12. The five and 12 are the personal friends and helpers of Zardari during his jail time, who have now been posted on sensitive state positions.
The stand taken by the Fata members is one such example of immense relevance. Although, they have taken up an anti-government position on a different issue, they want to sit in the opposition and would not like to side with the pro-NRO lobby. If that happens, it would be a major blow to the Zardari camp. The role of the secret agencies thus would come out in the open.
An overriding desire and effort in all the camps, including the non-political establishment, is not to rock the entire system. Everyone agrees in private that if President Zardari and his group of few unwanted aides were sidelined, the system will stabilise so that the focus can be shifted to the war against terrorists. But resilience and the fighting spirit of Zardari is being tested by the day.
According to one source located within the presidency, tension in the presidential camp is mounting and a battle headquarter is being set up to mobilise forces, appease allies, win over opponents and get the NRO passed by parliament, even bulldozed if necessary. But all the excitement suddenly dies down when the question of the Supreme Court striking down the NRO comes up. Everyone is suddenly dumbfounded.
The latest initiative by President Zardari to meet PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif to sort out their issues is viewed in the presidency as their last ditch political offensive to get Nawaz Sharif on his side. The argument that will be pitched to him will be that the military establishment is again out to derail the political process and in this fight the politicians should stay on the same side.
Although, Nawaz is strongly of the same views, it is highly unlikely that he will take sides with Zardari unless some huge, really huge, concessions are made and immediately, without waiting for any minute, hour or day.
Informed presidential sources say President Zardari is now ready to give up all his powers under the 17th Amendment, including the powers to appoint the Army chief but whether it is too late and too little for Nawaz to accept this bait is not yet clear. What is clear is that Nawaz has been bitten twice or thrice by the same snake hole and he may not like to poke his finger in that hole again.
By Shaheen Sehbai
KARACHI: An intense, behind the scenes, strategic and decisive review of the current political situation has begun among major power players, both political and non-political, to quickly decide how to stabilise the situation, seriously threatened by impending questions about the fate of those who benefited from the infamous NRO and are now in top positions of the country.
After detailed background interviews and sessions with most of the stakeholders, it is now becoming clear that unless the present system is cleansed and the major irritants are removed, the desperately needed political stability and the required moral and political support for the on-going civil war-like situation would not be available. This may, and probably already is, seriously hampering the military-cum-security operations against the hit-and-run or hit-and-die terrorists roaming all over the country.
Although the apparent problem is the uncertainty about what would happen to the NRO in parliament and even if passed by a simple majority, what may happen if the Supreme Court strikes down the controversial law ab initio, the issue which is driving everyone crazy is the wide gulf that has emerged between the top civilian and military leadership on how to handle America and the war on terror, denials and clarifications notwithstanding.
A well-informed insider said things had gone so bad that the military leaders had refused to meet President Asif Ali Zardari recently but it was Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani who persuaded the Pindi people to at least convey their views in a face-to-face sitting so a patch up, if possible, may be attempted. That effort too did not work.
Unfortunately, or probably in the interest of the system as the other side may argue, the political wings of our military establishment (read agencies), which had almost become redundant and were dormant for some months, have now come back into action with full force.
According to a recent BBC analysis: “The military launched a massive public relations exercise, briefing sympathetic talk-show hosts and journalists, who were encouraged to whip up public opinion against the (Kerry-Lugar) Bill. General Kayani also secretly met the opposition politician Shahbaz Sharif, the Punjab CM, who the Army had ostracised until now.”
Though such behind-the-scene interference has always been a major factor in political changes in the country, it is never legitimate or desirable. The Army is unhappy and angry because Zardari has given away too many concessions to the Americans and the GHQ realises that if the Kerry-Lugar Bill was to be implemented as desired by Washington, Pakistani cities could soon turn into battlegrounds between the Army and the Lashkar Tayyaba, the Jaish Mohammed and Taliban forces combined.
So far the GHQ has kept the Lashkar Tayyaba quiet by not acceding to the US demands of attacking or even touching Muridke, arguing that once this sleeping elephant wakes up, it could turn around and trample our own forces. After all, the LeT was raised and trained by our military establishment to fight the Indians in Kashmir and they are good at it. Turning their guns inwards, with TTP suicide bombers roaming everywhere, would turn Pakistan into a burning inferno, ready to collapse. Thus the Kerry-Lugar Bill is considered to be a recipe for instant disaster.
These arguments apart, the fact, however, is that the politicians are again failing to handle their own affairs in a deft manner and may again have provided the opportunity or the space for such behind-the-scene military intervention. One such occasion was provided on March 15 when the long march threatened the system.
Leading political parties are weighing their options. Consultations, often late in the night between key leaders, are at a peak to find some formula which may save the political parties from the embarrassment of voting for a black law but at the same time saving the system from failing once again.
The bottom line is how to change the image of the presidency, how to bring back its credibility and how to make it an institution which could be trusted and respected, by the people and its armed forces alike. President Asif Zardari, who had the God-given opportunity to rise to the occasion, has failed miserably by acting in a cavalier manner, by destroying his own credibility and by foisting upon the nation a coterie of cronies who may have been good providers of goods and services to him in jail but are not fit by any standard to run the affairs of the country.
This personalised style of governance has confused all political leaders and parties. They do not know whether to support Zardari on the NRO or to take a principled stand against him. The position of PPP allies is extremely difficult. The ANP and the JUI are inclined to stay neutral at best, although publicly they have opposed the NRO repeatedly. Abstention may also not help Zardari.
The MQM is on a crossroads as the party has recently announced a major makeover of its public face, trying to go into Punjab and other parts of Pakistan and transform into a country-wide party. But it is stuck with the PPP in Sindh and going against the NRO would cause a serious breach in these relations since it would again be seen as an anti-Sindh move, aimed at supporting the Punjabi political and military establishment.
The MQM think tanks do not want to get into a situation in which the apparently stable province could fall back into the dreaded urban-rural conflict once again, with the Taliban waiting on the outskirts of Karachi to strike at the city as soon as they get the chance.
So far, MQM strategists say, the Taliban have refrained from attacking Karachi because firstly the level of public vigilance in the city is far greater and intense because of the omni-present MQM cadres on the streets, and secondly because the Pathans in Karachi seriously believe that their economic and financial interests would be severely hit if Taliban terrorism disrupts the city.
So the Pukhtoons are in no mood to secretly provide sanctuaries to suicide bombers and could openly confront them if need be. On this issue, they and the MQM are on the same page, with strong political support from the ANP and the Jamaat-e-Islami. Several meetings between the MQM and Pathan leadership on this issue have already raised the level of mutual trust and coordination for joint action.
Yet for the MQM to openly support the NRO would be a retrogressive political decision. Conversely, if the MQM came out publicly against the NRO and offered to present all its beneficiaries to take their cases to the courts, the party will gain moral high ground and the party will get a facelift throughout the country, which could otherwise take years to accomplish.
For the PPP itself, the NRO is a major divisive issue. Except for the few top beneficiaries, the general PPP cadres had nothing to do with it and privately are deadly opposed to voting for such a black law. But they have other interests associated with staying in power and they would not like to rock the boat, if the NRO threatens to derail the current PPP stint in power.
The feeling in some PPP circles is that if the NRO strikes at Zardari and his cronies, rural Sindh, where the PPP has grass root support for the Bhuttos, would not react as fiercely as many predict it would. This may be so because Zardari and his Sindhi friends, who were never part of the Benazir circle, have generated enough ill will and animosity in the last 18 months. Some have been forced to recall the funny story of the coffin thief of a village and his son. It is better not to repeat that story.
The prime minister appears to be in two minds and would publicly like to support the president but he had himself refused to take any benefit from the NRO and had his own cases judged by the regular Musharraf courts under old laws. That one correct political decision may help him immensely when the NRO may keep haunting others.
But he is also lobbying secretly for the principled political parties, both allies and opponents, to take a stand against the NRO so that the system could be cleansed and stabilised. How much support he can muster within the PPP is a moot question but if he takes a public position, many would come forward to support him. His government would in no case fall because the PML-N has offered to sustain it.
The intense discussions behind closed doors are focusing on finding some way out before the NRO explodes into the political scene and starts rocking the boat. Political wings of agencies are secretly lobbying members of parliament to vote out the law, which may force the president to think about giving up his powers or to resign.
Various compromise formulas are also doing the rounds, some code named minus-5 and others minus-12. The five and 12 are the personal friends and helpers of Zardari during his jail time, who have now been posted on sensitive state positions.
The stand taken by the Fata members is one such example of immense relevance. Although, they have taken up an anti-government position on a different issue, they want to sit in the opposition and would not like to side with the pro-NRO lobby. If that happens, it would be a major blow to the Zardari camp. The role of the secret agencies thus would come out in the open.
An overriding desire and effort in all the camps, including the non-political establishment, is not to rock the entire system. Everyone agrees in private that if President Zardari and his group of few unwanted aides were sidelined, the system will stabilise so that the focus can be shifted to the war against terrorists. But resilience and the fighting spirit of Zardari is being tested by the day.
According to one source located within the presidency, tension in the presidential camp is mounting and a battle headquarter is being set up to mobilise forces, appease allies, win over opponents and get the NRO passed by parliament, even bulldozed if necessary. But all the excitement suddenly dies down when the question of the Supreme Court striking down the NRO comes up. Everyone is suddenly dumbfounded.
The latest initiative by President Zardari to meet PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif to sort out their issues is viewed in the presidency as their last ditch political offensive to get Nawaz Sharif on his side. The argument that will be pitched to him will be that the military establishment is again out to derail the political process and in this fight the politicians should stay on the same side.
Although, Nawaz is strongly of the same views, it is highly unlikely that he will take sides with Zardari unless some huge, really huge, concessions are made and immediately, without waiting for any minute, hour or day.
Informed presidential sources say President Zardari is now ready to give up all his powers under the 17th Amendment, including the powers to appoint the Army chief but whether it is too late and too little for Nawaz to accept this bait is not yet clear. What is clear is that Nawaz has been bitten twice or thrice by the same snake hole and he may not like to poke his finger in that hole again.
FoDP dumps expected billions into WB basket
By Shaheen Sehbai
WASHINGTON: The Friends of Democratic Pakistan, a forum which was created by President Asif Ali Zardari to raise billions of dollars for 'his' Pakistan, on Thursday quietly dumped the issue back into the lap of the World Bank, something which Mr Zardari had specifically warned against when he launched it a year ago.
And in another subtle move the FoDP turned itself into a political debating club for expressing support, minus of course the talk of the billions. Foreign Minister Qureshi had to explain to the media that the FoDP meeting was not about "pledges", although Mr Zardari had nothing else in mind except getting pledges of billions.
This subtle change of its purpose and definition contrastssharply with the original idea of President Zardari who launched it almost exactly one year ago at the same time and place, with the urgent appeal to collect $100 billion dollars as grants, from what he considered to be friends ready to trust him after the tragic death of Benazir Bhutto and his dramatic rise to power.
On Oct 4, 2008, shortly after the FoDP was launched with much fanfare, Mr Zardari had gone on record asking for the $100 billion dollars and warning against involving the World Bank. After interviewing him, the Wall Street Journal reported: "On Mr Zardari's request for $100 billion in grant he has a simple and powerful argument to make that the world cannot allow his government to fail...In asking the international community for infusion of $100 billion into Pakistan's economy, Zardari was keen to insist that it not be described as aid. Aid is proven through the researches of the World Bank . . . (to be) bad for a country. I'm looking for temporary relief for my budgetary support and cash for my treasury which does not need to be spent by me. It is not something I want to spend. But (it) will stop the (outflow) of my capital every time there is a bomb (blast). In this situation, how do I create capital confidence, how do I create businessmen's confidence?"
But when on Thursday in New York, the high profile summit of FODP ended with a political statement of good wishes and "we all love you" but go to the World Bank Trust for money, the only saving grace for the Pakistani managers of the FODP moot was the Senate passage of a modified version of the Kerry Lugar Bill. This was the best news President Obama could give to the FODP leaders although it has to pass through several stages before any dollars reach Pakistan.
Just one day before the FODP meeting Zardari had urged the US to reimburse $1.6 billion dollars and had called for an early realisation of about $6 billion pledged to Pakistan at a Tokyo donors conference early this year.
A top diplomatic source in New York said Pakistan had just received less than 15 per cent of this pledged amount so far and the creation of a Word Bank trust means the whole issue has been thrown into the mill of the financial institutions where Pakistan is already grappling with conditions and repayment schedules. What Mr Zardari wanted was aid or grants not loans. That has not yet come.
Even the prolific support of Richard Holbrooke for Mr Zardari was not enough to get more than statements stuffed with hot air. His own remarks after the FODP meeting reflected this helplessness or inaction. This is what he said: "... we wanted to show clearly that we were - that the United States and Pakistan's other friends are all working together for Pakistan. It's a long way from this meeting to realities on the ground, but this is the first summit meeting of the Friends of Democratic Pakistan, and we're very proud that it was co-hosted by our President on American soil." In essense, a long way to go but we are proud to host it now.
The way the FODP initiative was mixed up and merged with the Kerry Lugar bill was a master stroke of the PPP strategists who wanted to cover up the lack of progress in New York with the work in progress on Capitol Hill.
The British envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, Sir Cooper, called the adoption of the Kerry-Lugar bill the best "Eid gift" to the people of Pakistan. Where is that gift was left open for the people to look for but he reaffirmed British support for the country.
This support for the "people of Pakistan" was a repeated mantra because the US and other world leaders did not want to fall into the trap of equating the support for Pakistan to support for Mr Zardari. President Obama mentioned this in his opening remarks at the FODP by congratulating President Zardari but reaffirming deep commitment to the people.
Diplomatic insiders in New York say one of the reason behind President Zardari's "absence" from all the speeches of President Obama in New York, three at least, was this hesitation in US circles to express direct and unequivocal personal support for the Pakistani president. It was hilarious to note that Mr Zardari missed Obama's speech because he had to go for a medical check up but his personal physician, who is accompanying the president and should have been with him in the hospital, was left behind to hear Mr Obama's address, one diplomat revealed.
The hoopla about the passage of the Kerry Lugar bill may have partly made up for the lack of substance at the FODP meeting but a close reading of the Kerry Lugar text reveals that the conditions and clauses included have almost made the US the big brother with a big stick watching almost every economic, political, military and social activity in Pakistan. No wonder the US needs a lot of houses and residences in Islamabad.
The list of conditions and monitoring subjects (pl refer to the text of the bill) makes stunning reading but the key para which is likely to create a lot of trouble, although it is desperately needed in Pakistan's context, is about keeping the armed forces under control of the civilians.
This para is about US monitoring and every six months Secretary of State has to give the Congress "an assessment of the extent to which the Government of Pakistan exercises effective civilian control of the military, including a description of the extent to which civilian executive leaders and parliament exercise oversight and approval of military budgets, the chain of command, the process of promotion for senior military leaders, civilian involvement in strategic guidance and planning, and military involvement in civil administration."
The Indian factor has been added in these conditions under the following clause: "It is the sense of Congress that the achievement of United States national security goals to eliminate terrorist threats and close safe havens in Pakistan requires the development of a comprehensive plan that utilizes all elements of national power, including in coordination and cooperation with other concerned governments, and that it is critical to Pakistan's long-term prosperity and security to strengthen regional relationships among India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan."
There are several roadblocks, checkpoints and mechanisms to monitor where the aid given to Pakistan will flow because of the widespread fears of corruption and pilferage of the aid dollars.
Pakistan's foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi addressed that question in a diplomatic way but Richard Holbrooke said it bluntly. In response to a question on possibilities of corruption, the foreign minister assured the journalists that a mechanism has been devised in consultation with the Friends of Pakistan to make the whole process transparent. He said that the donor countries were satisfied with this arrangement.
Answering the same question, Holbrooke said that the US government has assigned Ambassador Robin Raphel, who under the instructions of the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, will coordinate with the relevant government ministries as the aid process moves forward. What he meant was that she will be the "monitor in chief" to catch any thief, big or small.
Whether Kerry Lugar washes away the impact of the missing dollars at the FODP meeting, a senior ex-diplomat in New York put the whole circus into a comical perspective. He said: FODP or FODP was a stock character in English literature and especially comic drama, as well as satirical prints. He is a "man of fashion" who overdresses, aspires to wit, and generally puts on airs. FODP was widely used as a derogatory epithet for a broad range of people by the early years of the 18th century; many of these might not have been considered showy lightweights at the time, and it is possible that its meaning had been blunted by this time.
WASHINGTON: The Friends of Democratic Pakistan, a forum which was created by President Asif Ali Zardari to raise billions of dollars for 'his' Pakistan, on Thursday quietly dumped the issue back into the lap of the World Bank, something which Mr Zardari had specifically warned against when he launched it a year ago.
And in another subtle move the FoDP turned itself into a political debating club for expressing support, minus of course the talk of the billions. Foreign Minister Qureshi had to explain to the media that the FoDP meeting was not about "pledges", although Mr Zardari had nothing else in mind except getting pledges of billions.
This subtle change of its purpose and definition contrastssharply with the original idea of President Zardari who launched it almost exactly one year ago at the same time and place, with the urgent appeal to collect $100 billion dollars as grants, from what he considered to be friends ready to trust him after the tragic death of Benazir Bhutto and his dramatic rise to power.
On Oct 4, 2008, shortly after the FoDP was launched with much fanfare, Mr Zardari had gone on record asking for the $100 billion dollars and warning against involving the World Bank. After interviewing him, the Wall Street Journal reported: "On Mr Zardari's request for $100 billion in grant he has a simple and powerful argument to make that the world cannot allow his government to fail...In asking the international community for infusion of $100 billion into Pakistan's economy, Zardari was keen to insist that it not be described as aid. Aid is proven through the researches of the World Bank . . . (to be) bad for a country. I'm looking for temporary relief for my budgetary support and cash for my treasury which does not need to be spent by me. It is not something I want to spend. But (it) will stop the (outflow) of my capital every time there is a bomb (blast). In this situation, how do I create capital confidence, how do I create businessmen's confidence?"
But when on Thursday in New York, the high profile summit of FODP ended with a political statement of good wishes and "we all love you" but go to the World Bank Trust for money, the only saving grace for the Pakistani managers of the FODP moot was the Senate passage of a modified version of the Kerry Lugar Bill. This was the best news President Obama could give to the FODP leaders although it has to pass through several stages before any dollars reach Pakistan.
Just one day before the FODP meeting Zardari had urged the US to reimburse $1.6 billion dollars and had called for an early realisation of about $6 billion pledged to Pakistan at a Tokyo donors conference early this year.
A top diplomatic source in New York said Pakistan had just received less than 15 per cent of this pledged amount so far and the creation of a Word Bank trust means the whole issue has been thrown into the mill of the financial institutions where Pakistan is already grappling with conditions and repayment schedules. What Mr Zardari wanted was aid or grants not loans. That has not yet come.
Even the prolific support of Richard Holbrooke for Mr Zardari was not enough to get more than statements stuffed with hot air. His own remarks after the FODP meeting reflected this helplessness or inaction. This is what he said: "... we wanted to show clearly that we were - that the United States and Pakistan's other friends are all working together for Pakistan. It's a long way from this meeting to realities on the ground, but this is the first summit meeting of the Friends of Democratic Pakistan, and we're very proud that it was co-hosted by our President on American soil." In essense, a long way to go but we are proud to host it now.
The way the FODP initiative was mixed up and merged with the Kerry Lugar bill was a master stroke of the PPP strategists who wanted to cover up the lack of progress in New York with the work in progress on Capitol Hill.
The British envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, Sir Cooper, called the adoption of the Kerry-Lugar bill the best "Eid gift" to the people of Pakistan. Where is that gift was left open for the people to look for but he reaffirmed British support for the country.
This support for the "people of Pakistan" was a repeated mantra because the US and other world leaders did not want to fall into the trap of equating the support for Pakistan to support for Mr Zardari. President Obama mentioned this in his opening remarks at the FODP by congratulating President Zardari but reaffirming deep commitment to the people.
Diplomatic insiders in New York say one of the reason behind President Zardari's "absence" from all the speeches of President Obama in New York, three at least, was this hesitation in US circles to express direct and unequivocal personal support for the Pakistani president. It was hilarious to note that Mr Zardari missed Obama's speech because he had to go for a medical check up but his personal physician, who is accompanying the president and should have been with him in the hospital, was left behind to hear Mr Obama's address, one diplomat revealed.
The hoopla about the passage of the Kerry Lugar bill may have partly made up for the lack of substance at the FODP meeting but a close reading of the Kerry Lugar text reveals that the conditions and clauses included have almost made the US the big brother with a big stick watching almost every economic, political, military and social activity in Pakistan. No wonder the US needs a lot of houses and residences in Islamabad.
The list of conditions and monitoring subjects (pl refer to the text of the bill) makes stunning reading but the key para which is likely to create a lot of trouble, although it is desperately needed in Pakistan's context, is about keeping the armed forces under control of the civilians.
This para is about US monitoring and every six months Secretary of State has to give the Congress "an assessment of the extent to which the Government of Pakistan exercises effective civilian control of the military, including a description of the extent to which civilian executive leaders and parliament exercise oversight and approval of military budgets, the chain of command, the process of promotion for senior military leaders, civilian involvement in strategic guidance and planning, and military involvement in civil administration."
The Indian factor has been added in these conditions under the following clause: "It is the sense of Congress that the achievement of United States national security goals to eliminate terrorist threats and close safe havens in Pakistan requires the development of a comprehensive plan that utilizes all elements of national power, including in coordination and cooperation with other concerned governments, and that it is critical to Pakistan's long-term prosperity and security to strengthen regional relationships among India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan."
There are several roadblocks, checkpoints and mechanisms to monitor where the aid given to Pakistan will flow because of the widespread fears of corruption and pilferage of the aid dollars.
Pakistan's foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi addressed that question in a diplomatic way but Richard Holbrooke said it bluntly. In response to a question on possibilities of corruption, the foreign minister assured the journalists that a mechanism has been devised in consultation with the Friends of Pakistan to make the whole process transparent. He said that the donor countries were satisfied with this arrangement.
Answering the same question, Holbrooke said that the US government has assigned Ambassador Robin Raphel, who under the instructions of the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, will coordinate with the relevant government ministries as the aid process moves forward. What he meant was that she will be the "monitor in chief" to catch any thief, big or small.
Whether Kerry Lugar washes away the impact of the missing dollars at the FODP meeting, a senior ex-diplomat in New York put the whole circus into a comical perspective. He said: FODP or FODP was a stock character in English literature and especially comic drama, as well as satirical prints. He is a "man of fashion" who overdresses, aspires to wit, and generally puts on airs. FODP was widely used as a derogatory epithet for a broad range of people by the early years of the 18th century; many of these might not have been considered showy lightweights at the time, and it is possible that its meaning had been blunted by this time.
Where did the minus-1 formula come from?
By Shaheen Sehbai
ISLAMABAD: The much abused and widely discussed minus-1 formula, which in other words means either safe or a violent exit of Asif Ali Zardari from the political scene, started taking shape in the power corridors of Islamabad and Rawalpindi when coupled with political failures, there was a torrent of reports of corruption, mainly by people associated and appointed by the presidency on key government and corporate positions, with a turnover of billions in shady deals.
What was going on in the presidency was unprecedented. Crooks and cronies of all hues were being offered lucrative positions in state-run corporations and money minting departments. There was no one on top of the hill to take note and the prime minister was too weak to raise any objection.
Important decision makers quietly admit that Yousuf Raza Gilani was repeatedly told to intervene but he was too meek and had been tasked to keep the politicians, coalition partners and the opposition, engaged and happy with his continued sweet talk, public appeasement and cash incentives for as long as he could. A fly on the wall said a Maulana would appear regularly in the PM House to take what he needed and this was no secret.
“The energisers and vitamin tablets Gilani was being given by many quarters, in hushed tones, were not working until by the end of last year and early 2009 the PM made some high profile moves to sack some bureaucrats, in close consultation with Zardari, to beef up his image. The PM slowly gained confidence. He surprised the president when he visited Karachi and secluded in the private quarters of the Sindh Governor’s House he finalised the list of his top bureaucratic reshuffle, away from the ears and eyes watching the PM House and his office all the time,” an associate revealed.
When Zardari protested, he was quietly told that if he had been informed in advance, the shuffle would not have been possible. A Presidency insider narrated the story of how the lifestyles of people around the president had transformed within weeks and months. “One close aide, working without any official position or a salary, had started wearing shoes costing over Rs300,000 a pair and this guy had no shame in showing off his shoes to anyone and everyone, even those who march in big boots.”
Such stories travelled far and wide and the consensus started developing that if the Presidency was to be used only for making deals by cronies, with the president either shut in his bunker or making trips round the world, this state of affairs could not be sustained. How and when to change it then became the key question.
When pressure started to become unbearable for the PM, he finally talked quietly to Zardari and told him about who, and where, people were getting so upset. This was taken as a direct interference and there was a lot of talk of teaching some people a lesson. A minus-1 option in Rawalpindi was discussed in private sittings. Secret meetings with uniformed star officers were held in the wee hours of cold nights. But as the presidency in Islamabad is the most watched and wired real estate in the country, this secret was soon out. Political amateurs, who had grabbed the high place coming from tiny bit jobs in hospitals, jails, and stud farms or from apartments in exile, could not keep the secret.
Then the presidential camp devised a scheme to turn around the Minus-1 formula. Publicly its existence was acknowledged, reactions were generated to create a mock political storm, and the idea was to use it against the original target. Before this could be done, decision makers at all stations started thinking about removing the president as it appeared to be the only viable option if the system had to be saved, cleansed and stabilised.
But still there was no operative mechanism. The president was bunkered in so physically he was safe but politically he was committing major blunders eating up his political capital, or whatever was left of it. By the middle of March, when the judges were restored, his political influence was almost finished yet his business dealings and property acquisition plans were on full steam. The latest report about the 300 acres of land in Islamabad proves he completed the deal in June 2009, oblivious of the disastrous image that he would get. Tragically, the deal also involved Bilawal, whose political career would now start as a partner in a shady deal with his father.
One recurring question that came up almost at every session I had with politicians, retired and working civil and military bureaucrats, journalists and businessmen was whether the democratic set-up and the political system was under any kind of threat if the ‘Minus-1’ formula, was implemented. And almost everywhere the consensus was a big ‘No’.
It was a ‘no, no’ because except democracy Pakistan has no other option, the military option being the most talked about alternative. Mian Nawaz Sharif is the strongest believer that the military may not intervene now, but 3-4 years down the line, he thinks it may come back once the threat of terrorism is under control and some stability is achieved. His fears are genuine but he also believes that politicians have to perform, earn respect and credibility, provide relief to the suppressed masses and continue the process. If they succeed, no one will try and no one will allow a military intervention.
The military establishment has tried hard under General Kayani and General Pasha to wash the black paint General Musharraf had splashed around the Army uniform. From a position where officers were told not to wear that uniform in public, the image has been restored to an extent that people praise their effort in Malakand and their sacrifices in the war on terror. Only a naive commander would want to fight a war with unconventional and murderous terrorists on the one hand and run the civilian affairs of a totally collapsing society on the other.
So the only option is continuation of the system and to let the process take its course. When I argued with many in the top houses where decisions are made, as to what was wrong with a change of face in a ministry, or the PM house or even the Presidency, as there was a mechanism to elect or appoint a replacement through the process, the presidential camp always saw it as a conspiracy against the person of Zardari. But others agree that to take the process further and to make the corrective mechanisms strong, political turbulence should not be taken as a threat to the entire system.
It is generally felt that Zardari has, through his inept handling of major issues and multiple setbacks, almost lost all his chances of stepping down from the Presidency and reach the PM House as leader of the house and PM. Initially, this was one of the acceptable options but now the script does not figure any role for him in the government and he would be left to manage the party, that is if he can do so.
This leaves the PM almost on his own and his major challenge would be to come out of the shadows of Zardari on the one hand and keep the loyalties of as many PPP MPs as possible so that his government’s majority in parliament is not threatened. The Opposition is helping him out, to a degree.
Everyone understands the dilemma facing Prime Minister Gilani as everything that he does which has a stamp of President Zardari’s personal approval is considered to be shady and stinks. So when the cabinet takes a sweeping decision to privatise all big corporations like the PIA, PSO and such other giants, immediately the red flags start going up. The fear is that all these assets will be sold to friends and business partners, even if the process is claimed to be transparent.
The PM should, therefore, stop all such deals and decisions until he becomes a PM in his own right and the decisions are seen as collective decisions to be implemented in a transparent manner and not dictated to suit the deep pockets of presidential friends who have already made billions.
The PM, when he gets out of the shadows of the Presidency, will have to catch these big fish to establish his credibility. Nothing short of a massive hunt for such wheeler dealers with a criminal mind will bring Gilani some credit. He has lived too long as a sheepish lame duck.
PS: A fly on the presidential wall told me the first part of this series was faxed by Altaf Hussain from London to President Asif Zardari on Wednesday with the note that you should read it personally as it had come from a journalist who used to meet you in jail. Hussain also ensured that the fax was seen by the president.
Next: Has a countdown begun in Islamabad?
ISLAMABAD: The much abused and widely discussed minus-1 formula, which in other words means either safe or a violent exit of Asif Ali Zardari from the political scene, started taking shape in the power corridors of Islamabad and Rawalpindi when coupled with political failures, there was a torrent of reports of corruption, mainly by people associated and appointed by the presidency on key government and corporate positions, with a turnover of billions in shady deals.
What was going on in the presidency was unprecedented. Crooks and cronies of all hues were being offered lucrative positions in state-run corporations and money minting departments. There was no one on top of the hill to take note and the prime minister was too weak to raise any objection.
Important decision makers quietly admit that Yousuf Raza Gilani was repeatedly told to intervene but he was too meek and had been tasked to keep the politicians, coalition partners and the opposition, engaged and happy with his continued sweet talk, public appeasement and cash incentives for as long as he could. A fly on the wall said a Maulana would appear regularly in the PM House to take what he needed and this was no secret.
“The energisers and vitamin tablets Gilani was being given by many quarters, in hushed tones, were not working until by the end of last year and early 2009 the PM made some high profile moves to sack some bureaucrats, in close consultation with Zardari, to beef up his image. The PM slowly gained confidence. He surprised the president when he visited Karachi and secluded in the private quarters of the Sindh Governor’s House he finalised the list of his top bureaucratic reshuffle, away from the ears and eyes watching the PM House and his office all the time,” an associate revealed.
When Zardari protested, he was quietly told that if he had been informed in advance, the shuffle would not have been possible. A Presidency insider narrated the story of how the lifestyles of people around the president had transformed within weeks and months. “One close aide, working without any official position or a salary, had started wearing shoes costing over Rs300,000 a pair and this guy had no shame in showing off his shoes to anyone and everyone, even those who march in big boots.”
Such stories travelled far and wide and the consensus started developing that if the Presidency was to be used only for making deals by cronies, with the president either shut in his bunker or making trips round the world, this state of affairs could not be sustained. How and when to change it then became the key question.
When pressure started to become unbearable for the PM, he finally talked quietly to Zardari and told him about who, and where, people were getting so upset. This was taken as a direct interference and there was a lot of talk of teaching some people a lesson. A minus-1 option in Rawalpindi was discussed in private sittings. Secret meetings with uniformed star officers were held in the wee hours of cold nights. But as the presidency in Islamabad is the most watched and wired real estate in the country, this secret was soon out. Political amateurs, who had grabbed the high place coming from tiny bit jobs in hospitals, jails, and stud farms or from apartments in exile, could not keep the secret.
Then the presidential camp devised a scheme to turn around the Minus-1 formula. Publicly its existence was acknowledged, reactions were generated to create a mock political storm, and the idea was to use it against the original target. Before this could be done, decision makers at all stations started thinking about removing the president as it appeared to be the only viable option if the system had to be saved, cleansed and stabilised.
But still there was no operative mechanism. The president was bunkered in so physically he was safe but politically he was committing major blunders eating up his political capital, or whatever was left of it. By the middle of March, when the judges were restored, his political influence was almost finished yet his business dealings and property acquisition plans were on full steam. The latest report about the 300 acres of land in Islamabad proves he completed the deal in June 2009, oblivious of the disastrous image that he would get. Tragically, the deal also involved Bilawal, whose political career would now start as a partner in a shady deal with his father.
One recurring question that came up almost at every session I had with politicians, retired and working civil and military bureaucrats, journalists and businessmen was whether the democratic set-up and the political system was under any kind of threat if the ‘Minus-1’ formula, was implemented. And almost everywhere the consensus was a big ‘No’.
It was a ‘no, no’ because except democracy Pakistan has no other option, the military option being the most talked about alternative. Mian Nawaz Sharif is the strongest believer that the military may not intervene now, but 3-4 years down the line, he thinks it may come back once the threat of terrorism is under control and some stability is achieved. His fears are genuine but he also believes that politicians have to perform, earn respect and credibility, provide relief to the suppressed masses and continue the process. If they succeed, no one will try and no one will allow a military intervention.
The military establishment has tried hard under General Kayani and General Pasha to wash the black paint General Musharraf had splashed around the Army uniform. From a position where officers were told not to wear that uniform in public, the image has been restored to an extent that people praise their effort in Malakand and their sacrifices in the war on terror. Only a naive commander would want to fight a war with unconventional and murderous terrorists on the one hand and run the civilian affairs of a totally collapsing society on the other.
So the only option is continuation of the system and to let the process take its course. When I argued with many in the top houses where decisions are made, as to what was wrong with a change of face in a ministry, or the PM house or even the Presidency, as there was a mechanism to elect or appoint a replacement through the process, the presidential camp always saw it as a conspiracy against the person of Zardari. But others agree that to take the process further and to make the corrective mechanisms strong, political turbulence should not be taken as a threat to the entire system.
It is generally felt that Zardari has, through his inept handling of major issues and multiple setbacks, almost lost all his chances of stepping down from the Presidency and reach the PM House as leader of the house and PM. Initially, this was one of the acceptable options but now the script does not figure any role for him in the government and he would be left to manage the party, that is if he can do so.
This leaves the PM almost on his own and his major challenge would be to come out of the shadows of Zardari on the one hand and keep the loyalties of as many PPP MPs as possible so that his government’s majority in parliament is not threatened. The Opposition is helping him out, to a degree.
Everyone understands the dilemma facing Prime Minister Gilani as everything that he does which has a stamp of President Zardari’s personal approval is considered to be shady and stinks. So when the cabinet takes a sweeping decision to privatise all big corporations like the PIA, PSO and such other giants, immediately the red flags start going up. The fear is that all these assets will be sold to friends and business partners, even if the process is claimed to be transparent.
The PM should, therefore, stop all such deals and decisions until he becomes a PM in his own right and the decisions are seen as collective decisions to be implemented in a transparent manner and not dictated to suit the deep pockets of presidential friends who have already made billions.
The PM, when he gets out of the shadows of the Presidency, will have to catch these big fish to establish his credibility. Nothing short of a massive hunt for such wheeler dealers with a criminal mind will bring Gilani some credit. He has lived too long as a sheepish lame duck.
PS: A fly on the presidential wall told me the first part of this series was faxed by Altaf Hussain from London to President Asif Zardari on Wednesday with the note that you should read it personally as it had come from a journalist who used to meet you in jail. Hussain also ensured that the fax was seen by the president.
Next: Has a countdown begun in Islamabad?
The contours of a changed, unwritten script Situationer
By Shaheen Sehbai
source: thenews
ISLAMABAD: In a week of intense behind the scenes political and diplomatic activity in the federal capital, key new lines have been added to the so called ‘script’, the unofficial, unwritten roadmap drawn up and preserved in the minds of the concerned people, to get rid of the despicable grip on the country of a few powerful highly placed individuals and their friends.
After my meetings with most of the main stakeholders in the present system during the last few days, including top people sitting in the Presidency, the PM House, Senate, National Assembly, Raiwind, the highly charged drawing rooms of Islamabad and the excited corridors ruled by career bureaucrats, the broad contours of the script have become identifiable. This assessment will purely be an analysis and conclusions drawn up by a journalist, but it will have many elements which have either come directly from the people I have met or from circles associated intimately with the real wielders of powers, political and non-political. Even before I started writing these lines, some elements of the new script had started becoming visible publicly.
The key indicators now out in the open include the shocking debacle for PPP on the NRO; the somersault of the MQM to oppose the NRO; a direct demand by Mr Altaf Hussain asking President Zardari to resign; the extra confidence in Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani to practically take over matters in his own hands; the emergence of Nawaz Sharif from his friendly opposition bunker; the significant stand taken by Fata MPs; the calm and cool but ever persuasive demeanour of the army chief to discuss “matters of national security” with the prime minister (not the president); the nervousness in some camps over the “messages and ideas” Lady Hillary Clinton has taken back to Washington; and the unusual multi-country tour of our ISI chief, starting with Saudi Arabia, which some government spokespersons hilariously described as a visit in which he had taken a message to the Saudi King from President Zardari.
In the previous script the role of the judiciary and the superior courts was well defined but before that stage could arrive the presidential edifice crumbled under the weight of just a couple of smart political moves by pro-establishment forces. So a calculated fine-tuning had to be done.
What has already happened is known but what is likely to come is more important. All stakeholders agree, and this I can claim after meeting almost all of them in the last few days in Islamabad and Lahore, that President Asif Ali Zardari will have to either step down with dignity, hand over his presidential powers to the PM through a fast-track constitutional amendments process, or become a figure head and stay within his bunker for as long as he does not create any nuisance.
Some apologists for the presidency have already publicly indicated that Mr Zardari is seriously thinking about this course because that would keep him in the top most position, immune to the unpleasant hardships of defending himself in civil courts, a process he has endured for years, and wait for his time to strike back as a relevant PPP leader, with the active aid and presence of son Bilawal and daughters Bakhtawar and Assefa.
This could be the easier way out for him but it involves humiliation and embarrassment on a daily basis as his cronies and confidants, those who do not get away from the country in time, will be dragged in cases and in the media, presenting before the entertained nation a spectacle which Mr Zardari would not like. They will be paying for their sins, of course.
So my analysis is that he will fight back. Some who still have access to him claim that he has expressed these defiant views many a time saying he would never resign and if someone wanted to remove him, he should send an ambulance because he would not walk out on his own two feet.
But this fighting spirit and belligerent posture, although part of his psyche and state of mind, will not be beneficial politically. It is almost certain, and a senior Sindhi politician who knows the PPP and Sindh like the back of his own right hand, openly admits, that for Zardari there would be no “Sindh Card”, as it was available to Benazir Bhutto.
In fact when I asked the Sindhi politician what may happen in Sindh, and the heart of PPP country, if Zardari and his 12 friends were removed from their offices, the answer was: “Only these 13 people will protest, no one else will.” He explained that there are no PPP cadres with fires in their belly left in the interior of Sindh who would rise for Zardari. There is a growing sense of hatred because the Zardari clan has taken over all what was loved by the Bhutto jiyalas. “If today Nawaz Sharif stages a public meeting in Larkana, the country will be surprised at the turnout,” the mainstream Sindhi politician belonging to the PPP told me.
So chances for Mr Zardari to rekindle his political fortunes, once he gives up his powers or if he resigns, are genuinely limited. The PPP would split into factions with the bulk going to a collective committee of PPP stalwarts, seniors and juniors who have remained, or have been kept, on the sidelines by the Zardari coterie. This will also bring the much-needed democracy and openness in the party, breaking the shackles of feudal hold.
This PPP committee, contours of which are already shaping up, have strong arguments to describe the Zardari-led PPP era, which started with the 2008 elections. These arguments start with the failures of Mr Zardari ever since he presented the will of Benazir Bhutto to the PPP CEC. All that the CEC members have done ever since is to take his decisions and policies with a pinch of bitter salt but have gone along because the party had won seats in the name of Benazir Bhutto and they had got a chance to rule after years of wilderness. The corrupt among the party made a mad rush to make money because they realized that this set up will not last long, hence the stigma of corruption not only stuck but intensified.
The Zardari era, the argument goes, consists of broken promises, colossal mistakes in assessing the mood of the people, taking decisions with arrogance, taking on the establishment and institutions which were needed to survive, taking gigantic U-turns when under pressure and smiling about them, claiming unabashedly as if it was a considered policy (like the restoration of judges, sacking and restoration of the Punjab government of PML-N, surrender on the Kerry Lugar Bill and eventually running away from the NRO).
Conversely, if it has been any sign for anyone to read, the PM has always been making politically correct statements, never making a commitment which he knew he would not be able to deliver and most importantly, he has received the “asheerbaad” (blessings) of those who matter on all critical junctures. This is no longer true for Mr Zardari.
So when the judges were to be restored, the Army Chief called on the PM to deliver the quiet message. When the March 15 decision was taken General Kayani called Aitzaz Ahsan to inform Nawaz Sharif. When the Supreme Court was about to give the initial short order on the PCO judges case, the meeting between General Kayani and Aitzaz Ahsan was considered necessary. When things were getting out of hand on the Kerry Lugar Bill, a similar meeting between Shahbaz Sharif and Chaudhry Nisar was held. The army chief also met the chief ministers of NWFP and Balochistan. When NRO erupted on the face of Mr Zardari, another meeting between the Army Chief and the PM was essential on Monday night so that the right message was conveyed. And it was. Then we saw the surrender.
These were domestic developments but the most important external factor which has now been added to the miseries of the presidency is the conclusion Hillary Clinton is believed to have drawn after her eye-opening three-day visit to Pakistan. She was actually on a fact-finding mission as the diplomatic channels in Pakistan and Washington had never informed her about the real situation. When the KLB exploded, State Department was taken aback and when Hillary saw with her own eyes and heard the people, her entire perceptions changed. Her almost three-hour meeting with General Kayani may have sealed many fates.
A shift in Washington’s policy, statements and emphasis would now be expected. She already took pains to ensure that none of her public and private utterances gave the impression that she was supporting any particular individual or any particular coalition government. She talked about the process of democracy and the people of Pakistan and that means faces can change but the Pak-US ties will stay.
The scriptwriters interpret this as a signal that Washington is no longer interested in protecting or prolonging Mr Zardari’s rule, if the people of Pakistan do not so wish. An official in the presidency quietly whispered in my ear that Mr Zardari has reached the point in just one year which General Musharraf took eight years to reach, vis-‡-vis the American support. “It is now for him to survive, the Americans have pulled the rug.”
On the domestic front again, the focus and all eyes would soon shift to the PM House where an hitherto out-shadowed PM was trying to cope and survive. Now the responsibility of making and owning all decisions would be his. Delivering results people expect from a sovereign parliament and a powerful PM under the amended constitution will be an onerous burden on Mr Yusuf Raza Gilani.
My interactions with a broad spectrum of important people reveal that Mr Gilani has not yet prepared himself to shoulder this responsibility. His administrative team is pretty weak and there is a growing sense of disconnect between the people around Mr Gilani and the rest of the top echelons of bureaucracy.
A senior bureaucrat told me the recent mass scale reshuffle in the officialdom by PM Gilani has made many officials nervous. They do not have direct and free access to the PM and a coterie of sorts is also beginning to surround the PM, like the one around the president. But this group is of professionals and civil servants who want to keep the PM under their thumb. It would be a big challenge for Mr Gilani to get a competent and effective team if he were to take charge and show the difference to the nation between a powerful PM and a one-man show which went wrong. He would have to sack high profile ministers, change cronies controlling the state organizations like the Pakistan Steel Mills, PSO, PIA, KESC and many others tainted with corruption.
source: thenews
ISLAMABAD: In a week of intense behind the scenes political and diplomatic activity in the federal capital, key new lines have been added to the so called ‘script’, the unofficial, unwritten roadmap drawn up and preserved in the minds of the concerned people, to get rid of the despicable grip on the country of a few powerful highly placed individuals and their friends.
After my meetings with most of the main stakeholders in the present system during the last few days, including top people sitting in the Presidency, the PM House, Senate, National Assembly, Raiwind, the highly charged drawing rooms of Islamabad and the excited corridors ruled by career bureaucrats, the broad contours of the script have become identifiable. This assessment will purely be an analysis and conclusions drawn up by a journalist, but it will have many elements which have either come directly from the people I have met or from circles associated intimately with the real wielders of powers, political and non-political. Even before I started writing these lines, some elements of the new script had started becoming visible publicly.
The key indicators now out in the open include the shocking debacle for PPP on the NRO; the somersault of the MQM to oppose the NRO; a direct demand by Mr Altaf Hussain asking President Zardari to resign; the extra confidence in Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani to practically take over matters in his own hands; the emergence of Nawaz Sharif from his friendly opposition bunker; the significant stand taken by Fata MPs; the calm and cool but ever persuasive demeanour of the army chief to discuss “matters of national security” with the prime minister (not the president); the nervousness in some camps over the “messages and ideas” Lady Hillary Clinton has taken back to Washington; and the unusual multi-country tour of our ISI chief, starting with Saudi Arabia, which some government spokespersons hilariously described as a visit in which he had taken a message to the Saudi King from President Zardari.
In the previous script the role of the judiciary and the superior courts was well defined but before that stage could arrive the presidential edifice crumbled under the weight of just a couple of smart political moves by pro-establishment forces. So a calculated fine-tuning had to be done.
What has already happened is known but what is likely to come is more important. All stakeholders agree, and this I can claim after meeting almost all of them in the last few days in Islamabad and Lahore, that President Asif Ali Zardari will have to either step down with dignity, hand over his presidential powers to the PM through a fast-track constitutional amendments process, or become a figure head and stay within his bunker for as long as he does not create any nuisance.
Some apologists for the presidency have already publicly indicated that Mr Zardari is seriously thinking about this course because that would keep him in the top most position, immune to the unpleasant hardships of defending himself in civil courts, a process he has endured for years, and wait for his time to strike back as a relevant PPP leader, with the active aid and presence of son Bilawal and daughters Bakhtawar and Assefa.
This could be the easier way out for him but it involves humiliation and embarrassment on a daily basis as his cronies and confidants, those who do not get away from the country in time, will be dragged in cases and in the media, presenting before the entertained nation a spectacle which Mr Zardari would not like. They will be paying for their sins, of course.
So my analysis is that he will fight back. Some who still have access to him claim that he has expressed these defiant views many a time saying he would never resign and if someone wanted to remove him, he should send an ambulance because he would not walk out on his own two feet.
But this fighting spirit and belligerent posture, although part of his psyche and state of mind, will not be beneficial politically. It is almost certain, and a senior Sindhi politician who knows the PPP and Sindh like the back of his own right hand, openly admits, that for Zardari there would be no “Sindh Card”, as it was available to Benazir Bhutto.
In fact when I asked the Sindhi politician what may happen in Sindh, and the heart of PPP country, if Zardari and his 12 friends were removed from their offices, the answer was: “Only these 13 people will protest, no one else will.” He explained that there are no PPP cadres with fires in their belly left in the interior of Sindh who would rise for Zardari. There is a growing sense of hatred because the Zardari clan has taken over all what was loved by the Bhutto jiyalas. “If today Nawaz Sharif stages a public meeting in Larkana, the country will be surprised at the turnout,” the mainstream Sindhi politician belonging to the PPP told me.
So chances for Mr Zardari to rekindle his political fortunes, once he gives up his powers or if he resigns, are genuinely limited. The PPP would split into factions with the bulk going to a collective committee of PPP stalwarts, seniors and juniors who have remained, or have been kept, on the sidelines by the Zardari coterie. This will also bring the much-needed democracy and openness in the party, breaking the shackles of feudal hold.
This PPP committee, contours of which are already shaping up, have strong arguments to describe the Zardari-led PPP era, which started with the 2008 elections. These arguments start with the failures of Mr Zardari ever since he presented the will of Benazir Bhutto to the PPP CEC. All that the CEC members have done ever since is to take his decisions and policies with a pinch of bitter salt but have gone along because the party had won seats in the name of Benazir Bhutto and they had got a chance to rule after years of wilderness. The corrupt among the party made a mad rush to make money because they realized that this set up will not last long, hence the stigma of corruption not only stuck but intensified.
The Zardari era, the argument goes, consists of broken promises, colossal mistakes in assessing the mood of the people, taking decisions with arrogance, taking on the establishment and institutions which were needed to survive, taking gigantic U-turns when under pressure and smiling about them, claiming unabashedly as if it was a considered policy (like the restoration of judges, sacking and restoration of the Punjab government of PML-N, surrender on the Kerry Lugar Bill and eventually running away from the NRO).
Conversely, if it has been any sign for anyone to read, the PM has always been making politically correct statements, never making a commitment which he knew he would not be able to deliver and most importantly, he has received the “asheerbaad” (blessings) of those who matter on all critical junctures. This is no longer true for Mr Zardari.
So when the judges were to be restored, the Army Chief called on the PM to deliver the quiet message. When the March 15 decision was taken General Kayani called Aitzaz Ahsan to inform Nawaz Sharif. When the Supreme Court was about to give the initial short order on the PCO judges case, the meeting between General Kayani and Aitzaz Ahsan was considered necessary. When things were getting out of hand on the Kerry Lugar Bill, a similar meeting between Shahbaz Sharif and Chaudhry Nisar was held. The army chief also met the chief ministers of NWFP and Balochistan. When NRO erupted on the face of Mr Zardari, another meeting between the Army Chief and the PM was essential on Monday night so that the right message was conveyed. And it was. Then we saw the surrender.
These were domestic developments but the most important external factor which has now been added to the miseries of the presidency is the conclusion Hillary Clinton is believed to have drawn after her eye-opening three-day visit to Pakistan. She was actually on a fact-finding mission as the diplomatic channels in Pakistan and Washington had never informed her about the real situation. When the KLB exploded, State Department was taken aback and when Hillary saw with her own eyes and heard the people, her entire perceptions changed. Her almost three-hour meeting with General Kayani may have sealed many fates.
A shift in Washington’s policy, statements and emphasis would now be expected. She already took pains to ensure that none of her public and private utterances gave the impression that she was supporting any particular individual or any particular coalition government. She talked about the process of democracy and the people of Pakistan and that means faces can change but the Pak-US ties will stay.
The scriptwriters interpret this as a signal that Washington is no longer interested in protecting or prolonging Mr Zardari’s rule, if the people of Pakistan do not so wish. An official in the presidency quietly whispered in my ear that Mr Zardari has reached the point in just one year which General Musharraf took eight years to reach, vis-‡-vis the American support. “It is now for him to survive, the Americans have pulled the rug.”
On the domestic front again, the focus and all eyes would soon shift to the PM House where an hitherto out-shadowed PM was trying to cope and survive. Now the responsibility of making and owning all decisions would be his. Delivering results people expect from a sovereign parliament and a powerful PM under the amended constitution will be an onerous burden on Mr Yusuf Raza Gilani.
My interactions with a broad spectrum of important people reveal that Mr Gilani has not yet prepared himself to shoulder this responsibility. His administrative team is pretty weak and there is a growing sense of disconnect between the people around Mr Gilani and the rest of the top echelons of bureaucracy.
A senior bureaucrat told me the recent mass scale reshuffle in the officialdom by PM Gilani has made many officials nervous. They do not have direct and free access to the PM and a coterie of sorts is also beginning to surround the PM, like the one around the president. But this group is of professionals and civil servants who want to keep the PM under their thumb. It would be a big challenge for Mr Gilani to get a competent and effective team if he were to take charge and show the difference to the nation between a powerful PM and a one-man show which went wrong. He would have to sack high profile ministers, change cronies controlling the state organizations like the Pakistan Steel Mills, PSO, PIA, KESC and many others tainted with corruption.
MQM distances itself, ANP in two minds
By Shaheen Sehbai
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistani political equation suddenly took a disturbing turn on Wednesday when differences between the civilian government and the Army high command surfaced over the Kerry-Lugar Bill and shook the national scene.
Amid fast-paced developments, which shocked the country, confusion in the government and coalition ranks was evident when Prime Minister Gilani, in a brief address to the National Assembly, offered to build a consensus between the president and the Army, implicitly admitting that things had suddenly changed.
A panic-stricken presidency went into urgent deliberations late on Wednesday night with PM Gilani, the interior and defence ministers and other main players and cronies. On the other side, parliament debated the Kerry-Lugar Bill in the backdrop of serious concerns expressed by the corps commanders at their 122nd conference in Rawalpindi earlier in the day.
Earlier, the presidency had described the criticism on the bill as an attempt to hit President Zardari. A detailed statement was issued by presidential spokesman Farhatullah Babar, reflecting this view.
The commanders, in an unusual ISPR release, took an apparently public position by officially stating their opposition to a policy issue but the sponsors and promoters of the Kerry-Lugar Bill, especially those in Washington, apparently had left no space for the GHQ as it was not taken on board and it was a matter of just hours or days when President Obama would have signed the bill into US law.
Shocked by the reaction in Pakistan, the US president also stopped short of putting his signature to the bill and waited for the outcome of the intense controversy, which has gripped Pakistan, especially on the conditions for aid on the security side.
The News had pointed out on Sept 27 that all the stakeholders were not on board regarding the important bill, which had unacceptable conditions for Pakistan and some of our negotiators had kept these conditions hidden from their own side so that the US bill might get through without any hitch. But that did not happen.
On Wednesday, the Pakistan Army took a strong and clear position against the bill, parliament started a discussion but abruptly ended it with a quorum call and the presidency went into panic sessions to chalk out a strategy as the entire scheme of the bill sponsors had turned topsy-turvy, threatening the political edifice.
Just hours before the Pakistan Army stated its position, both President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani had strongly supported the US aid bill, asking members of parliament to back it.
The first strike against this government position was made by MQM chief Altaf Hussain who stopped short of expressing support and said he had reservations over the bill. Then came the massive blow from the Army chief who told the visiting US military commanders on Tuesday that conditions in the Kerry-Lugar Bill were not acceptable, as reported in The News.
The corps commanders’ conference officially put the stamp of rejection when the ISPR said this about the bill: “The Kerry-Lugar Bill also came under discussion during the conference. The forum expressed serious concern regarding clauses impacting on the national security. A formal input is being provided to the government.”
The Army tried to put a comforting glaze on its position when the announcement said: “However, in the considered view of the forum, it is parliament, that represents the will of the people of Pakistan, which would deliberate on the issue, enabling the government to develop a national response.”
But coming after the categorical positions taken both by the president and the PM to support the bill, asking the government to develop a “national response” meant that the Army was asking for a major review in line with the wishes of the commanders and the people of Pakistan.
The ISPR press release, quoting the COAS, also made a profound statement: “Pakistan is a sovereign state and has all the rights to analyse and respond to the threat in accordance with her own national interests.” Analysts took this as a rebuff to the Kerry-Lugar Bill, and its sponsors, who had been persistently trying to convince everyone that this bill was in the national interest and should be accepted as such.
The opposition leader in the National Assembly attacked the bill in gusto as he and Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif had recently met the Army chief quietly and were reportedly conveyed the message that the PML-N was not coming out as it should against the Zardari-led administration because serious national damage was being done.
The secret meeting of these PML-N leaders has now been almost confessed but it has also led to serious apprehensions in the PPP camp about the intentions of the Pakistan Army against the government.
Coalition partner MQM has already distanced itself from the bill while the ANP was in two minds and Afrasiab Khattak said a three-member committee had been set up by President Zardari and the ANP would announce its position within 48 hours. But sources said the position would not be what the adamant PPP co-chairman is asking for.
Whatever the outcome of the storm created by the Kerry-Lugar Bill and the divisions within the political and military establishment would be, sources said that a major shake up in the Foreign Ministry and its foreign set-ups was inevitable because of the failure in protecting national interests.
“When the Army high command, the entire opposition, the media and the people say that our interests have not been safeguarded, some heads have to roll,” a Foreign Ministry official said.
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistani political equation suddenly took a disturbing turn on Wednesday when differences between the civilian government and the Army high command surfaced over the Kerry-Lugar Bill and shook the national scene.
Amid fast-paced developments, which shocked the country, confusion in the government and coalition ranks was evident when Prime Minister Gilani, in a brief address to the National Assembly, offered to build a consensus between the president and the Army, implicitly admitting that things had suddenly changed.
A panic-stricken presidency went into urgent deliberations late on Wednesday night with PM Gilani, the interior and defence ministers and other main players and cronies. On the other side, parliament debated the Kerry-Lugar Bill in the backdrop of serious concerns expressed by the corps commanders at their 122nd conference in Rawalpindi earlier in the day.
Earlier, the presidency had described the criticism on the bill as an attempt to hit President Zardari. A detailed statement was issued by presidential spokesman Farhatullah Babar, reflecting this view.
The commanders, in an unusual ISPR release, took an apparently public position by officially stating their opposition to a policy issue but the sponsors and promoters of the Kerry-Lugar Bill, especially those in Washington, apparently had left no space for the GHQ as it was not taken on board and it was a matter of just hours or days when President Obama would have signed the bill into US law.
Shocked by the reaction in Pakistan, the US president also stopped short of putting his signature to the bill and waited for the outcome of the intense controversy, which has gripped Pakistan, especially on the conditions for aid on the security side.
The News had pointed out on Sept 27 that all the stakeholders were not on board regarding the important bill, which had unacceptable conditions for Pakistan and some of our negotiators had kept these conditions hidden from their own side so that the US bill might get through without any hitch. But that did not happen.
On Wednesday, the Pakistan Army took a strong and clear position against the bill, parliament started a discussion but abruptly ended it with a quorum call and the presidency went into panic sessions to chalk out a strategy as the entire scheme of the bill sponsors had turned topsy-turvy, threatening the political edifice.
Just hours before the Pakistan Army stated its position, both President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani had strongly supported the US aid bill, asking members of parliament to back it.
The first strike against this government position was made by MQM chief Altaf Hussain who stopped short of expressing support and said he had reservations over the bill. Then came the massive blow from the Army chief who told the visiting US military commanders on Tuesday that conditions in the Kerry-Lugar Bill were not acceptable, as reported in The News.
The corps commanders’ conference officially put the stamp of rejection when the ISPR said this about the bill: “The Kerry-Lugar Bill also came under discussion during the conference. The forum expressed serious concern regarding clauses impacting on the national security. A formal input is being provided to the government.”
The Army tried to put a comforting glaze on its position when the announcement said: “However, in the considered view of the forum, it is parliament, that represents the will of the people of Pakistan, which would deliberate on the issue, enabling the government to develop a national response.”
But coming after the categorical positions taken both by the president and the PM to support the bill, asking the government to develop a “national response” meant that the Army was asking for a major review in line with the wishes of the commanders and the people of Pakistan.
The ISPR press release, quoting the COAS, also made a profound statement: “Pakistan is a sovereign state and has all the rights to analyse and respond to the threat in accordance with her own national interests.” Analysts took this as a rebuff to the Kerry-Lugar Bill, and its sponsors, who had been persistently trying to convince everyone that this bill was in the national interest and should be accepted as such.
The opposition leader in the National Assembly attacked the bill in gusto as he and Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif had recently met the Army chief quietly and were reportedly conveyed the message that the PML-N was not coming out as it should against the Zardari-led administration because serious national damage was being done.
The secret meeting of these PML-N leaders has now been almost confessed but it has also led to serious apprehensions in the PPP camp about the intentions of the Pakistan Army against the government.
Coalition partner MQM has already distanced itself from the bill while the ANP was in two minds and Afrasiab Khattak said a three-member committee had been set up by President Zardari and the ANP would announce its position within 48 hours. But sources said the position would not be what the adamant PPP co-chairman is asking for.
Whatever the outcome of the storm created by the Kerry-Lugar Bill and the divisions within the political and military establishment would be, sources said that a major shake up in the Foreign Ministry and its foreign set-ups was inevitable because of the failure in protecting national interests.
“When the Army high command, the entire opposition, the media and the people say that our interests have not been safeguarded, some heads have to roll,” a Foreign Ministry official said.
Mecca-bound pilgrims get swine flu shots
China will give swine flu vaccinations to thousands of Muslims to make the annual pilgrimage to Arabia, state media said, as authorities reported the mainland's third death from the illness.Concerns over the hajj, which attracts about 3 million Muslims every year to the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, have led several countries to impose travel bans over fears the mass gathering could speed the spread of swine flu. Arab health ministers in July banned children, the elderly and those with chronic illnesses from attending this year.
All of China's 12,700 Muslims making the pilgrimage this year will be inoculated against swine flu, the official Xinhua News Agency said, citing an earlier announcement by the China Islamic Association.
China has acted aggressively to detect and contain swine flu cases after being accused of failing to move quickly enough to stop the 2003 outbreak of SARS. Despite earlier measures such as strict quarantines, authorities say the swine flu virus is spreading from cities into the countryside.
A patient died from swine flu on Sunday in the far western region of Xinjiang, the Health Ministry said Monday in a regular update, without providing details. The previous two deaths also occurred in the west, in Qinghai province and Tibet.
The ministry said a total of 35,664 swine flu cases had been reported on the mainland by Monday, with 2,600 new cases since Friday. It said it was training health workers to respond to the surge in swine flu cases in autumn and the coming winter.
The government has licensed eight manufacturers in China to produce swine flu vaccines. Health authorities say they are expected to produce enough to inoculate 5 percent of China's population of 1.3 billion by the end of the year. Priority groups include students, health workers and people suffering chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.
In northwestern Ningxia, home to China's largest community of the Hui Muslim minority group, more than 2,000 Muslim pilgrims were vaccinated against swine flu, Xinhua said.
Each paid 5 yuan ($0.73) to cover "equipment cost," the report said, citing Ma Shouyu, head of religious affairs of Haiyuan, a county in southern Ningxia.
The pilgrims were scheduled to depart on chartered flights from Saturday to Nov. 12 for Mecca, the report said.
The hajj is a duty for all able-bodied Muslims in their lifetime, and many Muslims save up their whole lives to make the journey.
All of China's 12,700 Muslims making the pilgrimage this year will be inoculated against swine flu, the official Xinhua News Agency said, citing an earlier announcement by the China Islamic Association.
China has acted aggressively to detect and contain swine flu cases after being accused of failing to move quickly enough to stop the 2003 outbreak of SARS. Despite earlier measures such as strict quarantines, authorities say the swine flu virus is spreading from cities into the countryside.
A patient died from swine flu on Sunday in the far western region of Xinjiang, the Health Ministry said Monday in a regular update, without providing details. The previous two deaths also occurred in the west, in Qinghai province and Tibet.
The ministry said a total of 35,664 swine flu cases had been reported on the mainland by Monday, with 2,600 new cases since Friday. It said it was training health workers to respond to the surge in swine flu cases in autumn and the coming winter.
The government has licensed eight manufacturers in China to produce swine flu vaccines. Health authorities say they are expected to produce enough to inoculate 5 percent of China's population of 1.3 billion by the end of the year. Priority groups include students, health workers and people suffering chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.
In northwestern Ningxia, home to China's largest community of the Hui Muslim minority group, more than 2,000 Muslim pilgrims were vaccinated against swine flu, Xinhua said.
Each paid 5 yuan ($0.73) to cover "equipment cost," the report said, citing Ma Shouyu, head of religious affairs of Haiyuan, a county in southern Ningxia.
The pilgrims were scheduled to depart on chartered flights from Saturday to Nov. 12 for Mecca, the report said.
The hajj is a duty for all able-bodied Muslims in their lifetime, and many Muslims save up their whole lives to make the journey.
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